June has come to a close and with that we leave behind a very eventful 1st half of 2020. Most of us probably wish we could fast forward into 2021 as the pandemic has been felt by all in one way or another.
We upgraded our business confidence indicator to yellow.
We recently updated two indicators on our economic dashboard: Market Breadth and Market Sentiment.
We recently downgraded our Leading Economic Index (LEI) indicator to red. We had moved this indicator to warning last month after the initial decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator has further deteriorated at a rapid rate and we feel it should be downgraded again at this time.
We are another month into the COVID-19 pandemic and what a whirlwind it has been! So much has changed over the past month in not only our day to day lives, but also in the stock market as we’ve seen a much-needed rally. The S&P 500 was up over 12% in April and about 30% from the lows on March 23rd. (YCharts) While investors have been excited to see this move higher, we don’t believe that this rally has necessarily sounded the “all-clear” for stocks. As such, we have used this move higher to what we believe is our advantage and have continued to try to reduce risk within portfolios.
Despite stocks rallying, we saw historically weak economic data throughout April. We’ve highlighted a few data points below that demonstrate the impact of shutting down most of the economy and sheltering at home
We recently updated our dashboard by downgrading the leading indicators and market breadth signals to yellow.
Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost.
Global economic growth has been slowing, the US economy likely will contract, and US stocks have entered a bear market. Big stock market moves, both up and down, have become the norm. In short, this has been a challenging period for many long-term investors, and you’re asking what’s next and what to do.
We recently updated our economic dashboard by downgrading the Market Technicals indicator to yellow. This indicator is driven by historical prices. As such, the recent market sell-off has had a negative impact on the underlying trend of the market.
2020 got off to a strong start with the S&P 500 rallying almost 5% through the first 7 weeks of the year (YCharts); however, the market’s positive momentum came to an abrupt end during the last week of February. US stocks pulled back about 13% amidst fears of a rapidly spreading coronavirus and the potential impact on the global economy. We closed the month down roughly 8.5% for the year after several months of relative calm (YCharts).
While the spread of the coronavirus wasn’t the only news in February, it has been the most talked about market risk over the last few weeks. As such, we have outlined some key points when it comes to investing and the potential impact on your portfolios.
We recently updated our economic dashboard by upgrading the Market Sentiment indicator to green.